Telok
The eggnog is one third rum.
- Joined
- Jun 20, 2022
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I'm trying to find a general range of values for the minimum "success rate" that's noticeable by the general population during an activity like playing a game. In plain English: How small of a % change do people notice in play? I haven't been able to really find any research on it, just one paper where it was sort of tangentially mentioned as an aside. I've read like the intros of like thirty plus papers now, checks some of their references, tried dozens of search phrases, and come up with nothing.
I know that I, personally, don't notice a 10% change in success rate during play, but I do notice ones at about 15%. I can see it on a character sheet, calculate it, model it in code... but in the game a +/-10% is basically fuck-all lost-in-the-noise bupkis as far as I can tell. I know that to some extent it's dependent on how the games play. something like a d100 or blackjackD20 with no hidden modifiers are super easy because you know you had 60% last time and 65% this time and rolled a 63. But stuff with limited info or hidden variables like the D&Ds where it's d20+8 vs ???, that's where the uncertainty comes in, where improving or "leveling up" blurs the line between knowing you have a slight statistical improvement versus feeling that you've gotten better at something happens.
Anyone have any leads or ideas short of me running my own damn study?
I know that I, personally, don't notice a 10% change in success rate during play, but I do notice ones at about 15%. I can see it on a character sheet, calculate it, model it in code... but in the game a +/-10% is basically fuck-all lost-in-the-noise bupkis as far as I can tell. I know that to some extent it's dependent on how the games play. something like a d100 or blackjackD20 with no hidden modifiers are super easy because you know you had 60% last time and 65% this time and rolled a 63. But stuff with limited info or hidden variables like the D&Ds where it's d20+8 vs ???, that's where the uncertainty comes in, where improving or "leveling up" blurs the line between knowing you have a slight statistical improvement versus feeling that you've gotten better at something happens.
Anyone have any leads or ideas short of me running my own damn study?