Mod+ The Crisis in Ukraine

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A Russian band called Dunwich is donating all money gained from sales of their newest release to the Independent Rights Media Project OVD-Info for the people of Ukraine. They also stated that as making money transfers are literally impossible due to sanctions, they set up all money to go to the charaity directly via paypal. Hope this doesn't get them arrested.
 
urbwar said:
There are Indians who have joined; one was a 21 year old college student who was in Ukraine attending university. What's interesting is that by doing so, they can be charged under Indian law, as it is illegal for them to join another nation's military: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/sto...ing-army-karti-chidambaram-1922723-2022-03-09
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I'm reasonably sure, as in "over 50% odds", that the Indian courts would choose to disregard such acts in the interest of not cluttering their back queues with unnecessary lawsuits...:thumbsup:

Also, this war is shaking my beliefs from the inside out, and the reaction in the Bulgarian Facebook is about the third time I've been ashamed of my compatriots as a whole:sad:.

urbwar said:
A Russian band called Dunwich is donating all money gained from sales of their newest release to the Independent Rights Media Project OVD-Info for the people of Ukraine. They also stated that as making money transfers are literally impossible due to sanctions, they set up all money to go to the charaity directly via paypal. Hope this doesn't get them arrested.
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Now, that takes some real cojones, especially with the odds of OVD-Info being declared "foreign agent" in the near future...:shade:
 
AsenRG said:
I'm reasonably sure, as in "over 50% odds", that the Indian courts would choose to disregard such acts in the interest of not cluttering their back queues with unnecessary lawsuits...:thumbsup:
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Their government has ties with Russia, so at the very least, they are publicly coming out against anyone doing so. Whether that's just to appease Russia or not will be seen in the future
AsenRG said:
Also, this war is shaking my beliefs from the inside out, and the reaction in the Bulgarian Facebook is about the third time I've been ashamed of my compatriots as a whole:sad:.
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There's plenty of Americans doing the same. Some asshat on Quora was pushing that conspiracy theory about bioweapons labs in Ukraine funded by the United States.

AsenRG said:
Now, that takes some real cojones, especially with the odds of OVD-Info being declared "foreign agent" in the near future...:shade:
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If they had just posted that to Bandcamp, I would think they might escape notice. Except the also posted that to their Facebook page (which I thought was being blocked by their government, so I'm guessing they might have a VPN), which I think might attract more notice.

Regardless, they got my respect for doing it.
 
urbwar said:
A Russian band called Dunwich is donating all money gained from sales of their newest release to the Independent Rights Media Project OVD-Info for the people of Ukraine. They also stated that as making money transfers are literally impossible due to sanctions, they set up all money to go to the charaity directly via paypal. Hope this doesn't get them arrested.
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Pretty sure it will unless they are completely unknown. They'll be lucky if their friends and family are also not targeted, or they are not shot as I be in Russia this is called treason, and it is illegal to disagree with the governments official view now.
 
xanther said:
Pretty sure it will unless they are completely unknown. They'll be lucky if their friends and family are also not targeted, or they are not shot as I be in Russia this is called treason, and it is illegal to disagree with the governments official view now.
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Well, the penalty for calling the war in Ukraine a war should be merely a prison term, I believe:shade:!
 
AsenRG said:
Well, the penalty for calling the war in Ukraine a war should be merely a prison term, I believe:shade:!
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Agreed, Big Brother told me there is no such thing as war. So war is a bad-wrong-false-word. What is happening in the Ukraine is just an un-peace action, or is it alt-peace. :smile: Not sure, wait is that a knocking at my door.......
 
xanther said:
Agreed, Big Brother told me there is no such thing as war. So war is a bad-wrong-false-word. What is happening in the Ukraine is just an un-peace action, or is it alt-peace. :smile: Not sure, wait is that a knocking at my door.......
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There is, but this isn't war (according to Kremlin), it's just "special military operation".
 
xanther said:
Pretty sure it will unless they are completely unknown. They'll be lucky if their friends and family are also not targeted, or they are not shot as I be in Russia this is called treason, and it is illegal to disagree with the governments official view now.
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Dunwich aren't unknown; they've had some attention in the metal scene outside Russia.

There's a long history in Russia of the "alternative" music scene defying the establishment that goes all the way back to the cold war.
 
AsenRG said:
There is, but this isn't war (according to Kremlin), it's just "special military operation".
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It's 'Special' alright. I've never seen the like of it. Farmers towing off mobile SAMs worth millions. Navy ships being crippled by land-based MLRS, armored columns making thunder runs to the middle of nowhere and lining up and getting hammered by anti-tank weapons at point-blank range and Russians not understanding the concept of Rasputitsa (mud season). I've even seen tik tok footage of idiots filming themselves being ambushed rather than taking cover or shooting back. It's as Special as it comes. Someone somewhere is drinking their own kool aid.
 
Perhaps Putin hoped to conquer Ukraine quickly, consolidate in spring, and then make a move on Moldova in summer.
 
Bunch said:
Like vodka is "Special military water"?
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Only if Kremlin says it is. Otherwise that idea about vodka is just conjecture on your part, while "special military operation" is an official position of Moscow:thumbsup:!

urbwar said:
Putin had the head of the FSB arrested. Looks like the scapegoating has begun
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...and that news just made my day:grin:! Just to clarify, I've got nothing against the FSB chief, but the scapegoating beginning is actually great, because IMO it means Kremlin is looking at an end of the conflict soon!
Let's just hope it's scapegoating and not a coincidence:shade:!
 
Scapegoating isn't going to cut it, he owns this. I suspect he is either going after those who can remove him from power whether or not they were actively plotting, or getting revenge on political enemies while he still can. I see no way this ends with Putin in control. Ukraine isn't going to accept a loss of territory (and I don't blame them), Putin won't (really can't) accept anything he can't claim as mission accomplished. Russia will be the new North Korea until there is a government in control that isn't directly tied to the current one. A new government benefits all except the dead.

Putin really crapped the bed and I think he knows his best case scenario at this point is collecting his millions and living in luxurious exile in an ex-dictator friendly country. I'm just hoping he doesn't decide to go out in a blaze of nuclear glory.
 
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Agemegos said:
Has there been any confirmation on that? As far as I can see there is one source, and only the Murdoch media are picking it up. Fox News cites the Sunday Times, which cites Sergey Beseda, who cites "sources within the FSB" and a human rights activist called Vladimir Osechkin, who isn't in Russia and doesn't cite sources.

24 hours later and there is nothing on the BBC, CNN, or SBS.
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If it did happen it could take several days for it to appear on the BBC. A lot of the stuff I'm reading that turns out to be true is taking a long time to get reported on the mainstream news. I guess they are being ultra-cautious or it's bogus.
 
Agemegos said:
Has there been any confirmation on that? As far as I can see there is one source, and only the Murdoch media are picking it up. Fox News cites the Sunday Times, which cites Sergey Beseda, who cites "sources within the FSB" and a human rights activist called Vladimir Osechkin, who isn't in Russia and doesn't cite sources.

24 hours later and there is nothing on the BBC, CNN, or SBS.
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There is a slight mention here, so I suspect it is out there but not confirmed to a level acceptable for most media. Ex KGB guy dishing out KGB insider dirt and there are some comments that could be taken that Putin is turning on his military and intelligence people. Interesting comments regardless.

 
Generals getting removed or "fired" happens all the time. We've done it in every major military conflict. By itself that means nothing. Heads of Intelligence services get replaced too. Arrested, not so much, but who knows why, or even if it actually happened.
 
Agemegos said:
Has there been any confirmation on that? As far as I can see there is one source, and only the Murdoch media are picking it up. Fox News cites the Sunday Times, which cites Sergey Beseda, who cites "sources within the FSB" and a human rights activist called Vladimir Osechkin, who isn't in Russia and doesn't cite sources.

24 hours later and there is nothing on the BBC, CNN, or SBS.
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A google search shows multiple outlets reporting he's under house arrest, but none of the major ones appear have run the story that I can see.

This morning, Reuters reported that Ukraine and Russia gave an "upbeat assessment" on diplomatic talks. That didn't stop Russia from launching missiles at a Ukraine base 15 miles from the Polish Border

Former NY Times journalist Brent Renaud was supposedly shot and killed by Russian forces in the town of Irpin. Another journalist was reported to be wounded
 
At the time of writing I imagine the conflict will end once Russia carves out a portion of Ukraine that's large enough for Putin to save face and declare "mission accomplished." The question of whether sanctions will continue and in what capacity after the conflict ends is more complicated.

My hot take is that defaulting on foreign debt and nationalizing foreign assets will probably ensure that Russia remains a pariah state long after the conflict, even if the war is brought to a swift end.
 
According to the New York Times:
Russia has lost 3 generals (confirmed) and possibly 5 generals (unconfirmed). That is absolutely crazy as there are only 20 Russian generals in the conflict. It has to be massively disruptive as the Russians aren't a AAA military who can press on without a hitch after a senior officer is taken out of action; Russian junior officers and NCOs don't have the initiative, training, and authority to make that happen. I imagine that NATO is working overtime behind the scenes generating intel for the Ukranians to act upon.

For the record 7,057 Americans soldiers died in Iraq and Afghanistan over 20 years.
 
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Its worth remembering that the military structure of the Russian army is different from that in the west. They are top-heavy in high-ranking officers micromanaging local situations. This makes them vulnerable, especially in this case where someone is shooting back at them and they don't seem to have encrypted comms or any sort of air superiority. I've seen a list circulating of killed Russian officers and while I can in no way verify it, it is horrendously long. The Wall Street Journal is reporting 4 Russian generals killed.
 
I'm more interested in the new missile defense system they have been using.
Its apparently a new system that's working. It's leaving behind remnants that the west can use to figure out how it works and counteract.
They haven't been allowing their allies access to it so it has had some value in remaining a secret. Using it now means it's unlikely to be effective in whatever conflict comes next. Seems like a desperate move to have to reveal it's existence now but maybe they have something even better up their sleeves.
 
Putin just completely shit the bed didn't he? I'm beginning to wonder if he could even take Ukraine at this point. How much does he know anymore, and how much is just crap told by his yesmen?
 
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Giganotosaurus said:
Putin just completely shit the didn't he? I'm beginning to wonder if he could even take Ukraine at this point. How much does he know anymore, and how much is just crap told by his yesmen?
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he is utter shit, but don't underestimate him. He's an intelligence guy - he thrives on good information and using bad information against others. He's apparently got poor information, and that neuters him a lot.

Estimate I read last night says 75% of Russia's forces are in Ukraine. And we have UA troops showing off their tank kills and their javelins.
 
I was reading in Reuters the other day that a couple Russian amphibious landing ships have been spotted in the Sea of Japan heading west. I'm wondering if they're building up for another naval landing in Ukraine.
 
There has been a couple of times now that it looked like an amphibious operation was about to happen in Odessa, but each time it hasn't happened. It's given the Ukrainians time to prepare, which will only make it more difficult. It is going to be really interesting if it does happen. To the best of my knowledge, some of these Russian landing craft are large ships and not the Higgins Boats that we are all used to seeing in WWII movies. They are designed for beach landings, but they surely must be bullet and missile magnets.
 
General's don't need to be killed in combat.

Sources report that the deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia (a unit of RU's interior army which has had tremendous losses in Ukraine), Gen. Roman Gavrilov has been detained by FSB. Gavrilov had also previously worked in FSO, Putin's security service.
 
Giganotosaurus said:
Putin just completely shit the bed didn't he?
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He really has. I just saw a news report that noted that based on current US casualty estimations, the Russians have lost about half as many people during the last 3 weeks than they did during a decade in Afghanistan.

Add to that the flaws and weaknesses of the Russian military have now been laid bare for the entire world to see. After this is over, even if the will to reform the Russian military is actually there, it will take years, if not decades to actually implement those changes.

Finally, while I still wouldn't place money betting on either a coup or revolution to occur, I would say that the odds for either are a hell of a lot higher than they were a month ago.
 
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