The upside to coronovirus!

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3rik

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Most of the time there are managers manning the normal stations at all hours.
5iLD.gif
 

Lofgeornost

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Bummer that. No wonder you look so cross. At least with the COVID labour shortage the market for giant robot heads is likely to pick up. Best of luck, bro.
After the International Astronomical Union downgraded Pluto to a 'dwarf planet' in 2006, a lot of firms downsized. So the slump of 2007 actually hit us early.

As it turns out, NE Ohio is a lot like the outer planets anyway, so I feel at home. It's about as cold in the winter, though I'm not used to so much snow. And where's the frozen methane, anyway?
 

Raleel

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Near as I can tell it's nationwide.
It definitely is nationwide. Very unique time in the labor market to be sure. There is scarce supply because of a number of reasons - women not back in the workforce, demand for higher wages after putting up with this shift, retirement of the boomers.

the latter is fascinating to me. It is not going to get better for some time, and definitely not until women return to the work force. But even after that, we are going to be in an odd position. I’m not sure we’ve seen anything like this since ww2
 

Bunch

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Is this across the US or just on the West coast?
I
It definitely is nationwide. Very unique time in the labor market to be sure. There is scarce supply because of a number of reasons - women not back in the workforce, demand for higher wages after putting up with this shift, retirement of the boomers.

the latter is fascinating to me. It is not going to get better for some time, and definitely not until women return to the work force. But even after that, we are going to be in an odd position. I’m not sure we’ve seen anything like this since ww2
But from what I can tell it's primarily at the lower end of wages and people who have to return in person. If you're middle income and remote wages/benefits are not nearly under as much pressure.
 

Lofgeornost

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The current labor upheaval is fascinating. I recall that in the early days of the pandemic, a specialist in Roman economic history published an op-ed piece suggesting that, since the Black Death of the 1340s led to considerably higher real wages and a 'golden age of labor' COVID might do the same. At the time I thought he was crazy, since it was clear the coronavirus was not going to have mortality within an order of magnitude of plague. (If COVID were killing the same % of the population as the Black Death did, then the Cleveland metropolitan area would have lost as many people as the entire U.S. has to COVID so far, roughly speaking).

Now, though, with wages moving upward and signs of a 'seller's market' for labor, I'm wondering if he was more right than I had expected. The mechanisms must be different, though. I suppose an economist would invoke ideas like 'wage stickiness.'
 

Nobby-W

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The current labor upheaval is fascinating. I recall that in the early days of the pandemic, a specialist in Roman economic history published an op-ed piece suggesting that, since the Black Death of the 1340s led to considerably higher real wages and a 'golden age of labor' COVID might do the same. At the time I thought he was crazy, since it was clear the coronavirus was not going to have mortality within an order of magnitude of plague. (If COVID were killing the same % of the population as the Black Death did, then the Cleveland metropolitan area would have lost as many people as the entire U.S. has to COVID so far, roughly speaking).

Now, though, with wages moving upward and signs of a 'seller's market' for labor, I'm wondering if he was more right than I had expected. The mechanisms must be different, though. I suppose an economist would invoke ideas like 'wage stickiness.'

I've seen articles asserting that pandemics tend to cause significant social upheaval on their own merits, even if they don't necessarily kill a large proportion of the population off. Lots of people get knocked out of their comfort zone, resulting in less impetus to continue to put up with the BS associated with it.

Wages tend to go up after pandemics, or even more localised epidemics.
 

Bunch

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I lol at it as the two largest population groups, Boomers and Millennials are both on average leaving the bottom of the labor pool. Boomers are retiring. Millennials are moving up to managers at things like restaurants and moving out of careers in restaurants and retail. That's not everyone but enough of them that filling their void takes a lot of people and there are not enough humans to fill it. Add that the US has not been pro immigration leaves you a shrunk labor pool. The pandemic is frosting on the beater speeding up the change and giving anyone who wanted and was able to a chance to use the stay at home to learn new skills and make career moves.

On a social level this could be what the US needs because the most stressed groups are the non college low wage workers. Making their lives better in a non political move which is pretty much straight economics could vastly improve society.
 

Raleel

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I

But from what I can tell it's primarily at the lower end of wages and people who have to return in person. If you're middle income and remote wages/benefits are not nearly under as much pressure.
true, though there are some specific sectors that are experiencing continued labor shortages.

Some companies are learning that they can remote work (mine, for example) with little loss in productivity, and this is altering the labor landscape. Remote work focused companies are started to realize that remote workers making the same as their on site urban high cost of living counterparts is just making more people remote work, and they are adjusting salaries based on your cost of living - i.e. lets pay remote workers in lower cost of living areas less. Of course, the labor market is much broader with remote work, so more opportunities for both.

Massive upheaval, to be sure. I don't even know what it'll look like in half a decade when my kid is looking for his first job.
The current labor upheaval is fascinating. I recall that in the early days of the pandemic, a specialist in Roman economic history published an op-ed piece suggesting that, since the Black Death of the 1340s led to considerably higher real wages and a 'golden age of labor' COVID might do the same. At the time I thought he was crazy, since it was clear the coronavirus was not going to have mortality within an order of magnitude of plague. (If COVID were killing the same % of the population as the Black Death did, then the Cleveland metropolitan area would have lost as many people as the entire U.S. has to COVID so far, roughly speaking).

Now, though, with wages moving upward and signs of a 'seller's market' for labor, I'm wondering if he was more right than I had expected. The mechanisms must be different, though. I suppose an economist would invoke ideas like 'wage stickiness.'
I've read similar things, and I find it fascinating. Pandemics literally remove some of the labor supply (no callousness or offense intended), but more than anything I think we are seeing stress placed on the employee and realizing there are other options.

I'm also beginning to see the push for even more automation - McD's and IBM are working together to automate drive thru, though McDs already does a bunch of that via call centers. Taco Bell designed a new drive thru to remove the cashier, optimize flow, and have the restaurant above the drive thru.

The other thing I'm finding fascinating is the stepping away from just in time manufacturing. We optimized everything to be this sleek high speed race car that works great when the roads are smooth, but someone put in some big potholes and now we are having to readjust. The whole thing is making me wish I could have a Jamie Madrox like duplication power and go do logistics.
 

spittingimage

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The other thing I'm finding fascinating is the stepping away from just in time manufacturing.
Those sneaky hobbitses managers are still trying to find a way to make it work. Spittingwife works in steel manufacturing and right now customers are throwing money at them but then only sending a single truck every few days to pick up a fraction of the order. Using the mill as a warehouse without the cost of warehousing. The company's going to step on that idea hard.
 

Bunch

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true, though there are some specific sectors that are experiencing continued labor shortages.

Some companies are learning that they can remote work (mine, for example) with little loss in productivity, and this is altering the labor landscape. Remote work focused companies are started to realize that remote workers making the same as their on site urban high cost of living counterparts is just making more people remote work, and they are adjusting salaries based on your cost of living - i.e. lets pay remote workers in lower cost of living areas less. Of course, the labor market is much broader with remote work, so more opportunities for both.

Massive upheaval, to be sure. I don't even know what it'll look like in half a decade when my kid is looking for his first job.

I've read similar things, and I find it fascinating. Pandemics literally remove some of the labor supply (no callousness or offense intended), but more than anything I think we are seeing stress placed on the employee and realizing there are other options.

I'm also beginning to see the push for even more automation - McD's and IBM are working together to automate drive thru, though McDs already does a bunch of that via call centers. Taco Bell designed a new drive thru to remove the cashier, optimize flow, and have the restaurant above the drive thru.

The other thing I'm finding fascinating is the stepping away from just in time manufacturing. We optimized everything to be this sleek high speed race car that works great when the roads are smooth, but someone put in some big potholes and now we are having to readjust. The whole thing is making me wish I could have a Jamie Madrox like duplication power and go do logistics.
Yeah there is an argument that remote work will be deflationary on high end wages. The net net is the wage gap is closing but not at the highest end.
 

Nobby-W

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Those sneaky hobbitses managers are still trying to find a way to make it work. Spittingwife works in steel manufacturing and right now customers are throwing money at them but then only sending a single truck every few days to pick up a fraction of the order. Using the mill as a warehouse without the cost of warehousing. The company's going to step on that idea hard.
Once upon a time when I did some business papers at Ak University we did a site visit to a company who described their manufacturing and logistics methodology as 'Just Too Late.' Supply lines to New Zealand are very long.
Fun fact: at one point UOC had the longest internet connection in the world, stretching from Hawaii via leased line to a DDN cable going in the window of the CS building.
 

Bunch

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I feel you, man. All 3 of mine are too young to be eligible:shade:.
Such a shitty place to be. Everyone else is returning to normal and I'm glad for them but they're so tired of Covid they just want to be normal and reminding them your family isn't there is just not something they want to work around.

What ages are eligible where you are and where are you again?
 

AsenRG

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Such a shitty place to be. Everyone else is returning to normal and I'm glad for them but they're so tired of Covid they just want to be normal and reminding them your family isn't there is just not something they want to work around.

What ages are eligible where you are and where are you again?
Where I am, kids become eligible at 12, last I checked. My eldest is 9, so we've got some time before we can vaccinate everybody in the house:shade:.
 

Séadna

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Child vaccines aren't being rolled out here for a while, but my daughter has had corona for a few days now. Hasn't progressed beyond being a moderate fever thankfully. My son was probably the vector as his table mate had it in school, but he is asymptomatic. Me and Herself are vaccinated thankfully, couldn't imagine taking care of my daughter if I was floored or worse myself!
 

3rik

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My brother got sick last saturday and has been tested positive. Symptoms are very flu-like: fever, headache, cold.

My father's fever is gone, so he's apparently on the mending hand.
 
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Lofgeornost

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Child vaccines aren't being rolled out here for a while, but my daughter has had corona for a few days now. Hasn't progressed beyond being a moderate fever thankfully. My son was probably the vector as his table mate had it in school, but he is asymptomatic. Me and Herself are vaccinated thankfully, couldn't imagine taking care of my daughter if I was floored or worse myself!
I wish your daughter (and son) a speedy recovery!
 

Godfather Punk

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At the eve of probably another lockdown, I can't help but notice how Covid intrudes on my entertainment.

1637865323828.png
>Wonder Woman pilot episode<
- masks : Check!
- social distancing : Fail!
 
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Ronnie Sanford

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They're recommending avoid large groups and be prepared to spend time isolated. Specifically stock up on games to entertain yourselves during two weeks of self isolation.
That's right folks the CDC is saying the budget for games is officially increased! Tell anyone saying you have too many you need games as badly as hand sanitizer and beans!
Hey that’s a good point! I think I need to “isolate” and a few new games would make that a joy. Now to inform the wife!
 

Ronnie Sanford

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The other thing I'm finding fascinating is the stepping away from just in time manufacturing. We optimized everything to be this sleek high speed race car that works great when the roads are smooth, but someone put in some big potholes and now we are having to readjust. The whole thing is making me wish I could have a Jamie Madrox like duplication power and go do logistics.
Raleel could you expand on this a bit? My wife works for PepsiCo and I used to work for CommScope, both global companies and both massively disrupted by supply chain snarls. My background is in strategy consulting but I swear my friends doing logistics are killing it lately. Is it safe to say most global companies depending on JiT are having big problems?
 

Raleel

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Raleel could you expand on this a bit? My wife works for PepsiCo and I used to work for CommScope, both global companies and both massively disrupted by supply chain snarls. My background is in strategy consulting but I swear my friends doing logistics are killing it lately. Is it safe to say most global companies depending on JiT are having big problems?
yes, because JIT is no longer JIT - they don't have stockpiles, thus, they can't order into the future while surviving a current shortage. I have a friend in storage and logistics as well, and they are killing it as people revert to previous models. in house production, keeping lots of supplies on hand, etc.
 

Bunch

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yes, because JIT is no longer JIT - they don't have stockpiles, thus, they can't order into the future while surviving a current shortage. I have a friend in storage and logistics as well, and they are killing it as people revert to previous models. in house production, keeping lots of supplies on hand, etc.
I would love to own a warehouse right now. I would get so many companies are now trying to hedge and do a JIT hybrid where they have some storage but keeping it as small as they think they can survive with.
 

Bunch

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Anyone else having fun planning the holiday seasons??
 

Lofgeornost

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Because of the COVID situation in NE Ohio, my employer has switched to remote classes and work beginning tomorrow. It actually doesn’t affect me that much, but I know that many students are upset about it.

I hope we’re back in the classroom in January, since I’m not really prepared to teach the classes I’ll be offering then online, except for the one that was always scheduled to be online asynchronous.
 

3rik

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Heavy lockdown here, because of the high Omikron contagiousness, even though covid, hospital and IC numbers are currently decreasing, starting today. It will last until 14 January. Everybody will have had the opportunity to get an appointment for their booster shot by 7 January.
 

Lofgeornost

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I’ve just learned that the first two weeks of next semester (beginning January 10) will be online rather than in-person. Since one of my courses is a writing-intensive first-year seminar I’m not sure how to make that work. Oh well.
 

Bunch

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Mrs Bunch has and remains super worried about Covid. Mr Bunch is slightly worried about unknown long term impact of covid on unvaxed little Bunch. Most of the country regardless of political affiliation is now moving on with their lives because they have done all the steps they can (vaxd and boostered themselves and children over 5). This is causing Ms Bunch no end of worries because they don't appear to be noticing Omicron and it's impact on hospital staff, beds, isolation etc. 5hat and the under 5 vax being pushed back probably another quarter is really hitting her. It's less fun in the Bunch household these days.
 
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