Pitch Your D&D Killers

[Neon]

Short of a a serious missed step (like 4e), d&d will remain king.

Pseudo medieval fantasy is very approachable.

The technology and general low education of the world make for a simple setting without endless skill lists.

Fantasy settings, aside from grim dark, can be hopeful and thats what most prefer. Hardcore dark and apocalyptic settings have limited appeal or don't seem to draw in players for long campaigns.

The leveling up, as much as it's ridiculed by "serious" roleplayers, is love by just about everyone else.

I don't know. People have been trying to come up with better systens and setting since dnd first came out, but none for an extended time have been able to take the crown. Again, short of their own missed steps.

Who knows, if dnd continues down the path of getting rid of player race attribute differences so that essentially everyone is the same with a different skin suits or the furry player concept then maybe they will start losin fans once more.

 

[Baulderstone]

I don't really understand why no one stepped forward decisively while we waited for 5E, but they didn't. Part of the answer might be the tremendous fragmentation of the hobby into thousands of different systems.

Everyone stepped forward, forming a vast array of different D&D games from 13th Age to Labyrinth Lord. The upshot is that while WotC owns a trademark, nobody owns the actual game of D&D anymore. We got the best possible outcome in my opinion.

 

[Gringnr]

Okay, here's my pitch for a D&D killer:

"It superficially resembles the previous editions, but it's more of a tactical boardgame that you play with miniatures, only that's not how we're going to market it..."

 

[Baulderstone]

Okay, here's my pitch for a D&D killer:

"It superficially resembles the previous editions, but it's more of a tactical boardgame that you play with miniatures, only that's not how we're going to market it..."

It's a good start. Just make sure not to course correct on the following edition.

 

[David Johansen]

Okay, here's my pitch for a D&D killer:

"It superficially resembles the previous editions, but it's more of a tactical boardgame that you play with miniatures, only that's not how we're going to market it..."

So, it didn't go so well the last time but I think they went too small and too big at the same time. I've always thought it odd and a bit sad that GW eclipsed D&D in the miniatures game market. D&D has a clean and functional miniatures battle game at the heart of it but for some reason the designers always insist on encumbering it with gunk mechanics. 1e literally wallowed in them. 2e cleared them out but didn't replace them with anything functional. 3 - 5e cleaned up a bunch of cludgy lumpy gunk and then replaced it with NEW IMPROVED CLUDGY GUNK [TM]. A lean, mean dungeon delving machine with good miniatures support and tons of support for bigger battles and campaign games could do very well in the market place. Usually I'm all for multipart plastics but I wonder if you could hit the retro vibe with smaller metal figures. Take a look at all the character of the old GW cast on base figures. Take a look at the refined detail on Tom Meir and Julie Guthrie's work for Ral Partha and Grenadier. Metal prices are high, so produce true 25mm figures with great detail. I bet a 25mm realistically proportioned figure is about 1/3 the metal as a big, chunky 33mm guy. Gluing metal's a pain so do single piece figures with multiple variants much like old GW did a lot of head and hand swaps. I'm not sure you can scale up metal miniatures production to the point where you can compete in the D&D killer league but if you could you could probably buy tin futures and save a bundle on bulk metal.

 

[Bunch]

Short of a a serious missed step (like 4e), d&d will remain king.

Pseudo medieval fantasy is very approachable.

The technology and general low education of the world make for a simple setting without endless skill lists.

Fantasy settings, aside from grim dark, can be hopeful and thats what most prefer. Hardcore dark and apocalyptic settings have limited appeal or don't seem to draw in players for long campaigns.

The leveling up, as much as it's ridiculed by "serious" roleplayers, is love by just about everyone else.

I don't know. People have been trying to come up with better systens and setting since dnd first came out, but none for an extended time have been able to take the crown. Again, short of their own missed steps.

Who knows, if dnd continues down the path of getting rid of player race attribute differences so that essentially everyone is the same with a different skin suits or the furry player concept then maybe they will start losin fans once more.

I view class and level as shortcuts for people who want to spend less time learning the various systems.

 

[VisionStorm]

Short of a a serious missed step (like 4e), d&d will remain king.

Pseudo medieval fantasy is very approachable.

The technology and general low education of the world make for a simple setting without endless skill lists.

Fantasy settings, aside from grim dark, can be hopeful and thats what most prefer. Hardcore dark and apocalyptic settings have limited appeal or don't seem to draw in players for long campaigns.

I think that dark and post apoc tend to appeal more to male players, which limits your demographic reach and cuts it by half now that RPGs are starting to become popular with women. Unless by "dark" you mean dreamy emo vampires, which is what made VtM popular with the female audience the way D&D couldn't back in the day. Exceptions exist, but you can't kill a leading franchise by relying on exceptions to demographic trends.

Also, even in modern settings I think you could do away with the endless skill lists by limiting them to just a handful of general skills, then adding optional specialties for the specific stuff with a flat bonus for people who want to go into details.

The leveling up, as much as it's ridiculed by "serious" roleplayers, is love by just about everyone else.

You can't deny the pull and intuitive feel of "+1 level = Advancement". It gives you something specific to strive for with clear goals. Giving people a bunch of points and expecting them to figure out how to distribute them doesn't provide the same sense of direction or general idea how much they've progressed or how powerful they are. And it involves too much decision making and math if every ability has a different cost.

What I really hate are class structures, and I suspect other people find them limiting as well.

 

[Baulderstone]

I view class and level as shortcuts for people who want to spend less time learning the various systems.

I do editing work on BedrockBrendan 's game, and that is one the key differences between Wandering Heroes of Ogre Gate and Strange Tales of Songling. Both games have the same core mechanics, but Ogre Gate is a build game, where you have lots of options in creating your martial artist. With Songling, you pick a class, make a few simple choices, and you are ready to go.

When I am playing them at the table, they feel like the same game, but the approach to character generation makes a big difference in the accessibility of the game. I feel I could sit down with any group and start playing Strange Tales of Songling and get started in half an hour. Ogre Gate offers a lot more depth, but I'd probably set aside the first session just to get characters made.

 

[Bunch]

I do editing work on BedrockBrendan 's game, and that is one the key differences between Wandering Heroes of Ogre Gate and Strange Tales of Songling. Both games have the same core mechanics, but Ogre Gate is a build game, where you have lots of options in creating your martial artist. With Songling, you pick a class, make a few simple choices, and you are ready to go.

When I am playing them at the table, they feel like the same game, but the approach to character generation makes a big difference in the accessibility of the game. I feel I could sit down with any group and start playing Strange Tales of Songling and get started in half an hour. Ogre Gate offers a lot more depth, but I'd probably set aside the first session just to get characters made.

That's really it. If you want to reach the max people you make it easy to get into. I suspect if D&D had started with a build system we might not have a hobby or it would have a very different foundation.

 

[DeadBob]

So, it didn't go so well the last time but I think they went too small and too big at the same time. I've always thought it odd and a bit sad that GW eclipsed D&D in the miniatures game market. D&D has a clean and functional miniatures battle game at the heart of it but for some reason the designers always insist on encumbering it with gunk mechanics. 1e literally wallowed in them. 2e cleared them out but didn't replace them with anything functional. 3 - 5e cleaned up a bunch of cludgy lumpy gunk and then replaced it with NEW IMPROVED CLUDGY GUNK [TM]. A lean, mean dungeon delving machine with good miniatures support and tons of support for bigger battles and campaign games could do very well in the market place. Usually I'm all for multipart plastics but I wonder if you could hit the retro vibe with smaller metal figures. Take a look at all the character of the old GW cast on base figures. Take a look at the refined detail on Tom Meir and Julie Guthrie's work for Ral Partha and Grenadier. Metal prices are high, so produce true 25mm figures with great detail. I bet a 25mm realistically proportioned figure is about 1/3 the metal as a big, chunky 33mm guy. Gluing metal's a pain so do single piece figures with multiple variants much like old GW did a lot of head and hand swaps. I'm not sure you can scale up metal miniatures production to the point where you can compete in the D&D killer league but if you could you could probably buy tin futures and save a bundle on bulk metal.

TBH, I love minis but I doubt any minis-using game is a giant killer (or even really competitive) unless 3D printers get even more common, faster, and produce even better results.

Even the LEGO minis suggestion is a bit unlikely, although it would be really cool to see something like that made.

 

[sharps54]

I assume you're referring to Ninjago. That's a setting that's well setup for an RPG. The problem is I don't think the Lego group wants to appeal to kids(and kids parents) at all times so they limit the violence and themes to some extent.

They had a mini RPG line for a while called Heroica. Microfigures in a fantasy world. I have a ton of guys for it. I just doesn't have advancement very much or what to do with advancement.

I wish I had bought up the cowboys/western lines but they were only in production for two years and I was out of miniature wargames at the time. They would have been perfect for my upcoming skirmish campaign with my son.

 

[sharps54]

TBH, I love minis but I doubt any minis-using game is a giant killer (or even really competitive) unless 3D printers get even more common, faster, and produce even better results.

Even the LEGO minis suggestion is a bit unlikely, although it would be really cool to see something like that made.

Hmm, maybe I need to finally invest in a 3D printer…

 

[David Johansen]

TBH, I love minis but I doubt any minis-using game is a giant killer (or even really competitive) unless 3D printers get even more common, faster, and produce even better results.

Even the LEGO minis suggestion is a bit unlikely, although it would be really cool to see something like that made.

The thing is that D&D started out as a miniatures game. I think Games Workshop's sales, FFG's Star Wars Legion sales, even the current glut of D&D vinyl figures all speak to the popularity of miniatures. I will agree that the game shouldn't be miniatures dependent. Theater of the mind certainly has its place and its advocates but there's also the issue of having something to sell people month after month after month. Rpgs suffer from having a big sale on the core book and then a trickle from supplements until the next edition. Miniatures give you something to sell people that doesn't bloat the system.

I do agree with the argument that Pathfinder is D&D by another name and not a D&D killer. And a D&D variant that focuses on a tight ruleset and can handle battles with a couple hundred on a side without breaking a sweat is also still D&D.

But it does raise the issue of format. The big fat hardback is the king of the market and yet also the rpg's greatest weakness. It's either so comprehensive that you've got nothing new to sell or so bloated nobody will ever play it. Especially ultimate editions like GURPS 4e or Hero 5e. Though Hero did a good job of the sidekick book. I've always liked the modularity of the three hole drilled Basic and Expert D&D. The boxes that followed not so much.

 

[sharps54]

The thing is that D&D started out as a miniatures game. I think Games Workshop's sales, FFG's Star Wars Legion sales, even the current glut of D&D vinyl figures all speak to the popularity of miniatures. I will agree that the game shouldn't be miniatures dependent. Theater of the mind certainly has its place and its advocates but there's also the issue of having something to sell people month after month after month. Rpgs suffer from having a big sale on the core book and then a trickle from supplements until the next edition. Miniatures give you something to sell people that doesn't bloat the system.

I do agree with the argument that Pathfinder is D&D by another name and not a D&D killer. And a D&D variant that focuses on a tight ruleset and can handle battles with a couple hundred on a side without breaking a sweat is also still D&D.

But it does raise the issue of format. The big fat hardback is the king of the market and yet also the rpg's greatest weakness. It's either so comprehensive that you've got nothing new to sell or so bloated nobody will ever play it. Especially ultimate editions like GURPS 4e or Hero 5e. Though Hero did a good job of the sidekick book. I've always liked the modularity of the three hole drilled Basic and Expert D&D. The boxes that followed not so much.

One thing that really helped sell a lot of copies for Savage Worlds was the Explorer Edition format and price, sadly it wasn’t financially feasible to continue to offer it with the SWADE edition.

 

[David Johansen]

They could have gone with non-glossy paper and black and white printing.

 

[sharps54]

They could have gone with non-glossy paper and black and white printing.

Possibly, I’m only going off what they said when the new edition came out.

 

[David Johansen]

I know black and white isn't the industry standard these days, you have to be able to offer some financial advantage over printing a pdf on your own laser printer. But for a little core book like the Explorer's edition or Hero Sidekick I think it's great, it's a cheap little book and the rules are the content.

 

[TristramEvans]

OK, so, to actually be a "D&D Killer" -

one) as we all know the only RPG that ever defeated D&D in sales....was D&D, when Pathfinder presented a version of D&D while D&D was in an edition that was at it's least D&Dish. So the game has to be D&D, in other words, OSR, but without the OSR label. A cleaed-up, more accessible version of D20 that heavily focuses on cruchy bits for players.

two) art direction - need to go Pixar-ish. A consistent modern, family-friendly aesthetic. More cartoony than D&D. Not anime, but absolutely animated.

three) adopt the "Apple" approach to marketing: you aren't selling a product, you are selling a lifestyle. Commercials featuring hip young "our game" players lightly making fun of old, fat, unappealing D&D players. Pay online influencers to be "early adopters". Throw very flashy. spectacle-laden evets at convetions, with paid attractive/charismatic people actng as the face of the game.

five) proprietary game stores. Gotta start a chain of game stores - bright, clean, family friendly, professionally run, a counterpoint to the Not-so-F LGS. This franchise needs to become as synonymous wth gaming as McDonalds is with fast food. An how do you do that? Well, it's very simple - you move into an area and you undercut all of your competition, wait for them to go out of business, and then jack up prices. And once you've cornered the market, then you gradually phase out selling any game except yours.

 

[Simon Hogwood]

Now, of course, it is too late - 5E is a good enough game, on its own terms, and is wildly popular. So, it will be a good 5-10 years until another opening occurs.

When it dissolves into a shambling mound of splat books, no doubt.

Jokes aside, James Mishler just left a comment on a Tenkar's Tavern post arguing that seeing D&D books on the shelf at Wal*Mart is a sign that the bubble is about to burst. I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but in light of this conversation I though it was a note-worthily congruent comment. James Mishler doesn't post here, does he?

 

[The Butcher]

Space Marine the Masquerade, coming to stores this summer.

What if I told you it already exists?

When it dissolves into a shambling mound of splat books, no doubt.

Jokes aside, James Mishler just left a comment on a Tenkar's Tavern post arguing that seeing D&D books on the shelf at Wal*Mart is a sign that the bubble is about to burst. I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but in light of this conversation I though it was a note-worthily congruent comment. James Mishler doesn't post here, does he?

Love James’ work but I don’t think he grasps the meaning of “bubble” here. Or there’s another layer to the argument outlined in that post that I’m not getting to.

Because if his argument is “Wal-Mart does not provide the customer services of a FLGS”, well, that ship sailed long ago. Well before 5th edition, in fact; I’d say by the end of 3rd.

And it also explains why 1990s/2000s type supplement treadmills are no longer a viable business model unless they’re impulse-purchase-priced PDFs, or you have a loyal cult following and your name is Kevin Siembieda.

 

[A Fiery Flying Roll]

I don't think WFRP could ever have huge mainstream success and remain WFRP. It's too steeped in '80s British cynicism.

It was more of a serious contender for second place in the UK for that very reason.

However, WFRP illustrates a serious problem for the concept of any game actually threatening D&D. It would require a company with the commercial clout to put in the resources to make that challenge. Any company that has that clout almost certainly has done so by finding much less risky niches of the gaming market to enter and isn't going to switch to prioritising RPGs. (See also Steve Jackson and Munchkin. Bluntly, Jackson is the only one of the OGs who ever had that kind of business sense and it's pretty clear he only does RPGs out of nostalgia now).

 

[Simon Hogwood]

What if I told you it already exists?

Love James’ work but I don’t think he grasps the meaning of “bubble” here. Or there’s another layer to the argument outlined in that post that I’m not getting to.

Because if his argument is “Wal-Mart does not provide the customer services of a FLGS”, well, that ship sailed long ago. Well before 5th edition, in fact; I’d say by the end of 3rd.

And it also explains why 1990s/2000s type supplement treadmills are no longer a viable business model unless they’re impulse-purchase-priced PDFs, or you have a loyal cult following and your name is Kevin Siembieda.

I don't think that's his argument, I think it's "D&D books at Wal*Mart means that market is just about saturated". As I alluded to, I don't know enough to say whether this is enough of a parallel to the situations in the 80s and the 90s he cites to safely predict a similar result. One argument against that would be that, as you say, we don't see the kind of supplement treadmill that characterized those earlier bust cycles. Not from WotC, anyway.

 

[finarvyn]

The exact rules may not be important but I think the computer will be the key; not in a "remote gaming" manner but more as a game organizer.

--> Program that tracks hit points, perhaps linked to a GM's computer.

--> Program that has stuff like "spells you can cast in range of monster" lists so spellcasters see their options without having to consult rulebooks.

--> Program that has maps or images which can be sent from the GM's computer to the player's.

That kind of thing. I'm a teacher and I have to say that teaching remotely was terrible, but it did force me to acquire skills that I really didn't have before. For example, through Microsoft ONE NOTE I can write a doc and "push" it to each individual student simultaneously, then I can log into my ONE NOTE and look at what each student has written on his/her version. I could do a homework check at 2 AM if I felt like it, because I could access their copy at any time.

So maybe the next big thing would allow a GM to push out maps and images, allow the players to see pictures of the monsters being fought, and so on. Ideally the players could roll dice and input a number (or have an option for auto-roll) and when the GM rolls dice the program could give the GM the needed data in real time. (For example, perhaps the character sheet is all online so that the computer can cross index AC with monster attack and tell the GM "needs a 12 to hit." That kind of thing might allow for faster action.)

And it has to allow for GM customization in a way that a computer game can't. The flaw in computer games is that there are only so many options, but a RPG can handle essentially an infinite number of ideas. Much of the strength of D&D is that you can run a module or you can homebrew a game, and the next big thing needs to allow that flexibility. As to modules, I can see buying a module with all of the maps and monsters set up in advance.

 

[Endless Flight]

I mean, maybe D&D being in Wal-Mart means the market is saturated. I remember shelves of 2e D&D books (and other TSR games) at Toys ‘R Us in the 90s and I don’t think it was a bad thing. It just means Wizards is trying to see if the books will sell at Wally’s.

 

[Bunch]

I mean, maybe D&D being in Wal-Mart means the market is saturated. I remember shelves of 2e D&D books (and other TSR games) at Toys ‘R Us in the 90s and I don’t think it was a bad thing. It just means Wizards is trying to see if the books will sell at Wally’s.

It means one thing. Walmart (or whoever they subcontract out that shelf space to) thinks it will sell well enough to justify the shelf space. I mean for their size they seem like a pretty good $/sq ft profit.

 

[Stan]

Neither would a be D&D killer but I can see two scenarios for very popular games.

1. A midgrade or YA series puts out a game (not license, same publisher with mainstream sales channels) and has major buy in from the creator(s), including writing help. Imagine if, at the top of Harry Potter popularity, Rowling had said "If you really want to experience Hogwartz, play this game that I helped write. It's the only way to read about all the lore details."

2. A country without D&D dominance and possibly a newly growing game scene makes a home grown game that grows to dominate the domestic market and leak a bit to other countries. I'm thinking of places like China, India, Latin America, or maybe Nigeria or Indonesia. These are all places with large populations that could potentially support a large (by rpg standards) game company.

 

[Endless Flight]

The only game I can think of that might have had a shot would have been Harry Potter: The Roleplaying Game because it can check a lot of the same boxes as D&D and has a bigger pop culture following.

 

[Eternal Chump]

I love In Nomine, it was my favourite game for years. We played the crap out of it in university. But yeah, the system was pretty weird and janky in places.

The only D&D killer will be WOTC's lazy incompetence or contempt for their fanbase, and they've been doing okay with 5e so far by all accounts. I doubt we'll see D&D's star fade any time soon.

As for another game taking the central spot, it's hard to say. I'd say there's a relatively big audience for all kinds of non-traditional settings, and someone doing a good enough job at one of them could swing it. Could be post apocalypse.
To me, a game like that needs:
- A strong and broad pop culture hook
- A mechanics that make some degree of intuitive sense (so I think simulation sells, here)
- A large amount of material to go with the core mechanics (people like monster books and books full of locations)
- A strong series of default scenarios to make it easy to DM (dungeoneering is often noted as a pretty easy way to introduce a new DM, so what's the post-apocalypse version of that? Whatever Fallout does?)

So colour me skeptical on it actually happening, but if you're asking me to put my money down on an outcome, I say D&D style post apocalypse.

 

[Tommy Brownell]

I mean, D&D 3.5 killed any desire I had to even look at D&D for YEARS.

 

[VisionStorm]

The only D&D killer will be WOTC's lazy incompetence or contempt for their fanbase, and they've been doing okay with 5e so far by all accounts. I doubt we'll see D&D's star fade any time soon.

Agreed.

As for another game taking the central spot, it's hard to say. I'd say there's a relatively big audience for all kinds of non-traditional settings, and someone doing a good enough job at one of them could swing it. Could be post apocalypse.
To me, a game like that needs:
- A strong and broad pop culture hook
- A mechanics that make some degree of intuitive sense (so I think simulation sells, here)
- A large amount of material to go with the core mechanics (people like monster books and books full of locations)
- A strong series of default scenarios to make it easy to DM (dungeoneering is often noted as a pretty easy way to introduce a new DM, so what's the post-apocalypse version of that? Whatever Fallout does?)

So colour me skeptical on it actually happening, but if you're asking me to put my money down on an outcome, I say D&D style post apocalypse.

I don't think post apocalyptic would rank very high because, like I mentioned in my other post, I think that they appeal more to a male demographic and female players have become a thing. I think women tend to prefer fantasy stuff and vampires, and stuff with social elements rather than "The world is blown to hell and there's no plumbing. Plus a zombie may eat your ass if you go take a dump in the woods."

Plus post apoc worlds also tend to be dreary and depressing—fun and interesting in a certain way, but also kinda "Abandon all hope ye who play this game." I think they lend themselves more to a certain kind of player or mood ("I feel like playing in a crapsack world today") more than having broad, go-to appeal. Fantasy are easy to play go-to games. Post apoc tend to be more "I'm sick of cutesy elves all the time! Let's play in a fucked up world this once!"

That being said, the dungeoneering equivalent to post apoc is...dungeoneering, but with a post apoc twist. Modern ruins, overtaken by the wilderness, with secret caches of old world tech, weapons and munitions, instead of magical items. Maybe some old world medicine, some toilet paper, etc. Toxic spills and biohazards instead of weird magic areas, escaped genetically engineered beasts instead of magic monsters, roving bands of raiding lunatics instead of orcs, etc.

 

[David Johansen]

Dystopian worlds are often post apocalyptic outside the walls of the enclave and those stories sell well to girls.

 

[A Fiery Flying Roll]

Yeah, I think it depends very much on the type of post-apocalyptic.

This did very well in the 70s.

 

[robertsconley]

Pseudo medieval fantasy is very approachable.

There is no other type of adventure for another genre or setting that be as easily described or taught as a dungeon.

• Take a piece of graph paper
• Draw a maze with rooms
• Populate some of the rooms with monsters, treasure, traps, and puzzles.
• Have the players create some characters
• Have the players as their characters start at the entrance to the maze.

System aside this is not just D&D's secret sauce but fantasy roleplaying in general secret sauce.

Don't believe me?

Big Rubble and it is not the only example that is not a D&D adventure but is a dungeon.

The closest that comes to this is a series of combat encounters linked together by a thin plot. But dungeon has an explicit exploration component that lacks. And you have to work at it to make a maze that is as linear as a linked series of encounters. Most folks I know when asked to make a maze tend to make rooms and corridors going every which way.

The rest of what you can do with D&D or any other fantasy RPG is a wash compared to other types of adventures. D&D could have been replaced in some alternate timeline, likely by TSR collapsing and its IP going out of print, but its replacement still would have had dungeons and still would have been a fantasy RPG.

 

[arjunstc]

three) adopt the "Apple" approach to marketing: you aren't selling a product, you are selling a lifestyle. Commercials featuring hip young "our game" players lightly making fun of old, fat, unappealing D&D players. Pay online influencers to be "early adopters". Throw very flashy. spectacle-laden evets at convetions, with paid attractive/charismatic people actng as the face of the game.

It's already happened.

I bet there are people out there who wear Death Save t-shirts, watch Critical Role, have created several characters, but have never actually played a game of D&D. Just as there are people who wear Harley Davidson t-shirts who can't ride a bike, or who wear a Liverpool jersey, pay for Premier League on cable TV, but haven't touched a football since high school.

 

[Voros]

The thing is that D&D started out as a miniatures game. I think Games Workshop's sales, FFG's Star Wars Legion sales, even the current glut of D&D vinyl figures all speak to the popularity of miniatures. I will agree that the game shouldn't be miniatures dependent. Theater of the mind certainly has its place and its advocates but there's also the issue of having something to sell people month after month after month. Rpgs suffer from having a big sale on the core book and then a trickle from supplements until the next edition. Miniatures give you something to sell people that doesn't bloat the system.

I do agree with the argument that Pathfinder is D&D by another name and not a D&D killer. And a D&D variant that focuses on a tight ruleset and can handle battles with a couple hundred on a side without breaking a sweat is also still D&D.

But it does raise the issue of format. The big fat hardback is the king of the market and yet also the rpg's greatest weakness. It's either so comprehensive that you've got nothing new to sell or so bloated nobody will ever play it. Especially ultimate editions like GURPS 4e or Hero 5e. Though Hero did a good job of the sidekick book. I've always liked the modularity of the three hole drilled Basic and Expert D&D. The boxes that followed not so much.

Minatures are a related but distinct hobby from ttrpgs. I've never used them at the table and never ecountered anyone using them as a kid or teen. I bought a few out of curiousity as did a few friends but they didn't catch on.

There is obviously a lot of overlap with hardcore ttrpgers and minis but to 'kill D&D' you need a game with wide appeal and lower barriers to entry.

The minis audience for GW I suspect is small but dedicated (obsessed?) and with an ability and willingness to spend far too much money on their hobby. Culturally, minis and wargames are neglible.

These days D&D is back to being at least vaguely a name that the average person is aware of, WH4K is very much not.

MtG I'm less sure of, I had some friends who got into it and I know a few younger people into it but although highly profitable I don't see the same kind of cultural footprint for MtG.

 

[Voros]

As to the OP, what I think kept some previous competitors from rising above D&D (WoD, CoC) was a lack of scale, both in distribution and marketing.

Being able to get D&D into the big chain bookstores, featured prominently and consistently stocked not just a lone copy filed somewhere, is the real killshot.

I think the MCU has the brand recognition and economic muscle to do it but I doubt Disney has the motivation to push and compete in what is still to them a very small pond in term of profits.

So outside of that, as others had said the Next Big Thing is rarely something most can see and predict. If it does happen almost by definition it will not be something we can forsee. But either way it will have to be something with really large corporate backing to compete with the juggernaut of Hasbro and WotC.

 

[DeadBob]

Meh. Miniatures go just fine with RPGs. It’s that gaming miniatures are generally too expensive for beginners that tends to mix that aspect. There are potential ways around but almost no one has the resources to do it. Ironically. Hasbro/ WotC is one that does have the ability, if they were to go outside of their current thinking.

 

[TristramEvans]

The minis audience for GW I suspect is small but dedicated (obsessed?) and with an ability and willingness to spend far too much money on their hobby. Culturally, minis and wargames are neglible.

These days D&D is back to being at least vaguely a name that the average person is aware of, WH4K is very much not.

I think your perception may be a little skewed there - Warhammer sales averaged 353,200,000 GBP ($500,000,000 usd) per quarter in 2021

That's hardly "small but dedicated", and to call it "culturally negligible" is grossly inaccurate. GW's stock prices overtook those of British Gas & Marks & Spencer during the epidemic

Why Games Workshop is worth more than Marks & Spencer and Centrica

Disease and demographics have boosted the toy-soldier business

www.economist.com

 

[A Fiery Flying Roll]

I think your perception may be a little skewed there - Warhammer sales averaged 353,200,000 GBP ($500,000,000 usd) per quarter in 2021

That's hardly "small but dedicated", and to call it "culturally negligible" is grossly inaccurate. GW's stock prices overtook those of British Gas & Marks & Spencer during the epidemic

Why Games Workshop is worth more than Marks & Spencer and Centrica

Disease and demographics have boosted the toy-soldier business

www.economist.com

Warhammer is dominant enough in the UK mainstream that it's a regular target of satire sites. Admittedly, mostly the more studenty satire sites, but it's still notable they assume their readers will know what Warhammer is enough to get the joke.

 

[sharps54]

I think your perception may be a little skewed there - Warhammer sales averaged 353,200,000 GBP ($500,000,000 usd) per quarter in 2021

That's hardly "small but dedicated", and to call it "culturally negligible" is grossly inaccurate. GW's stock prices overtook those of British Gas & Marks & Spencer during the epidemic

Why Games Workshop is worth more than Marks & Spencer and Centrica

Disease and demographics have boosted the toy-soldier business

www.economist.com

Yep, I’ve seen Games Workshop outlet stores in US malls but I have never seen a WotC store…